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Associate already estimated Ddr-3 memory expansion rates , according to which in the present year the difference in price between Ddr-2 and Ddr-3 will be reduced to 10%.
New generation memory usually has higher crystal area, and therefore its production costs more. First, new memory type obtains some new functional possibilities, and this increases the crystal area. In the second place, memory producers usually do not risk to begin the production of memory microcircuits (new generation) with the use of most progressive technical process - there is a big risk to obtain a low suitable microcircuits release level . For this reason producers use old technical process , which causes an increase in the crystal area.
When Ddr-3 was released on 90 nm technical process, its crystal area was 50% higher than in Ddr-2 memory (120 square millimeters against 80 square millimeters). Everything, which is larger, cost more expensive, and therefore cannot enjoy high demand. So Ddr-3 memory would reach ideal combination of density and price, when it pass to technical process 57 nm, and then crystal area will be succeeded in descending to 80 square millimeters. This will occur only at the end of 2009.
So Ddr-3 will cease to be more expensive than Ddr-2 exactly in the fourth quarter of 2009. Accordingly Ddr-2 memory will begin to be removed from the market, it will be more expensive than analogous in volume Ddr-3 microcircuits . Up To 2010 Ddr-3 will pass on 50 nm technical process, and microcircuits will reach density 2 Gbit.
In 2011 Ddr-4 memory will begin to appear and up to 2012-2013 it will replace current DDR3 .
According to experts estimations , new memory type should appear in each 3-4 years. Related Products :
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