Today's electric cars remain expensive for the majority of motorists. They suffer from a small stock of progress on a single charge, fear of frost and are dependent on poorly developed network of charging stations. At least in most countries the infrastructure is not quite ready for mass exploitation of electric vehicles. However, the larger becomes the electric vehicle, the easier it will be the production technology associated components. The cost of lithium-ion batteries have already decreased by 65% since 2010, and by 2030 it will drop even three times.
In the next year and a half Tesla Motors and General Motors will bring to market electric cars, capable to pass on a single charge 300 km, and their value in the market of the United States based on local incentives and subsidies will not exceed $ 30 000 for the base configuration. And yet, according to the authors of the forecast, up to 2025, while maintaining low oil prices, the cost of owning a conventional car with an internal combustion engine on carbon fuels will be lower than in the case of the electric vehicle. If the cost of a barrel of oil exceeds $ 20 over the next decade, the massive expansion of electric vehicles will be delayed until the beginning of the 2030s. Analysts Bloomberg expect that by 2040, about a quarter operated passenger vehicles in the world will move on electric. And among the new vehicles offered for sale, the share of electric cars will reach 35%.
By the way, in 2040, the annual volume of sales electric vehicles will reach 41 ml Pcs. Now the share of electric vehicles does not exceed 1% of the sales volume of new passenger vehicles. A similar-sized fleet of electric vehicles by 2040 will consume up to 8% of the total electricity generated in the world in 2015.
Until the middle of the next decade, electric vehicles are unlikely to go beyond 5% of the total sales volume of new motor vehicles, and only on the individual markets will be able to exceed this level at the expense of subsidies and tax breaks.